Topic: crisis

What will happen if swine flu comes to Africa?

I am not a doctor and I don't have any degrees so remember this as you read. This is an article based on things I read, see and think.

Mexico has a very good health system where most medical is for free and they actually have doctors, and the virus is hardly being contained. Africa has some of the best doctors in the world but unfortunately it is also so expensive most people cannot even afford basic medical care. If you go to the local state hospitals most of them are overrun and understaffed as it is.
The virus is fast spreading and is not easy detectable. At the moment it is winter in South Africa so most people already have colds and flu so a couple of extra cases won't be noticed until it is already far spread. Especially seeing as the only way to be sure if you have it or not is by doing blood test. Africa has the highest HIV and Aids rate in the world and one of the biggest killers are TB. Think about it TB a lung sickness, if a person should start showing signs of increase symptoms I do not think it would be noticed. With the HIV/Aids the people who have it their immune system is already weak so to become sick would hit them the hardest and fastest.
To me it sounds like an disaster. We do not have the capacity to quarantine people and by far we do not have enough vaccines to help those detected. It will be the poor affected the most because lets face it if you have a expensive medical aid and money to back that up you will be helped but with our health system in the state that it is what will the poor do?

The disease would skip from city to city over an 18-to-24 month period, infecting more than a third of the population. World health Organization officials believe as many as 1.5 billion people around the globe would seek medical care and nearly 30 million would seek hospitalization. Based on the last pandemic and current world population, as many as 7 million people could die, epidemiologists said.  CNN

In the past the viruses that came from animals was not able to spread from human to human because in most cases it killed the human before it could become contagious. Meaning capable from spreading from person to person. Swine Virus is not that lethal, which is good for the bearer but that means it can spread as well. So the person won't necessarily die but the virus can now spread through human contact so it can move from continent to continent. It would not help to kill the pigs like with bird flu where thousands of birds was killed. It is no isolated, farmer touching animal, farmer get sick, that's it. Swine flu farmer gets sick and so does anyone who comes in contact with him.

The main problem I see with this is our government is not taking this at all seriously enough. It can take one person and it could be a couple of days before anyone knows that person is sick. Then you have to track everyone who was in contact with the person etc. It can become ugly very very fast. The DA has raised it's concerns that the government should not dismiss it so easily. If USA has stated they have a health crisis what makes them think it would just pass us by.

I think it is time they government started listening to the other parties as well. Panic won't help this situation, the fact remains when you look at the figures of how fast this can spread and how densely populated South Africa is. It doesn't take a genius to figure out if/when it comes it would be hard to control.

What would happen if swine flu hits Africa? Honestly I don't know ... the word catastrophe comes to mind.